Illusions and Delusions

Much has been going on in Iran lately. The difficulty is figuring out what it all means. For example, there was an explosion on November 12 that Iran claimed was “an accident.” The images of said “accident” look an awful lot like an effective attack that resulted in the complete destruction of the entire missile production facility. Every building in the extended compound was either heavily damaged or completely obliterated. Then there was a major explosion near Isfahan, which happens to be the home of a major nuclear production facility, an explosion that Iran at first denied had even occurred, then confirmed, and now has denied again. We can expect a satellite analysis of the site in question soon. Finally, today, a mob stormed the British embassy in Tehran to protest Britain’s implementation of sanctions on Iran. What is going on?

It seems fairly obvious that covert action is being taken against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and that additional efforts are being conducted in the economic and diplomatic spheres beyond the prying eyes of the press.

Who is conducting strikes on Iranian facilities? The US? Israel? Both? We do not know. What we do know is that Iran’s primary response to these events that have heavily damaged or destroyed facilities is to deny that they ever happened in the first place or to play them down significantly. In and of itself, this is important.

Iran does not want to blame Israel or the US for what appear to be attacks on its facilities. It certainly does not want to admit the extent of its vulnerability by admitting that the US or Israel could carry out such strikes within Iran with impunity, but it may also want to avoid military conflict. To accuse Israel or America of these attacks would almost certainly require a military response from Iran.

Those who have argued for attacks against Iran’s nuclear and missile related facilities have been called delusional with some predicting regional war should such strikes occur. Yet here we are looking at what appear to be two major strikes on Iranian military facilities in two weeks. Are these illusions? Are we deluding ourselves into thinking that someone may have taken action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program? It looks as though it may be a while before we know for certain what is in fact illusion and what is in fact delusion?

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