Here endeth the Arab Spring.
Today, the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt dissolved Egypt’s parliament and the military for all intents and purposes has regained complete control over the nation. This was foreseen by those who were familiar with Egypt’s political situation at the time when Mubarak was ousted. Based upon what I knew at the time, I published an article in which I stated that:
There was no doubt that in order to end the protests in Tahrir Square, Mubarak had to officially step down and Suleiman, his Vice President, could not be immediately named his successor. There was no doubt that the military had to step in. But if anyone says that they lack doubt as to what the future holds, either days, weeks, months or years, they are either not telling the truth or are deluded into believing that they are.
The military will rule indefinitely.
Thus, today’s ruling by the Mubarak appointed and Military backed Supreme Constitutional Court was not surprising. Egypt’s military had no problem ousting Hosni Mubarak, an aging and ill leader. It did and obviously continues to have a problem sharing actual power in Egypt.
The rise of Islamist parties in Egypt was a threat throughout the region. The Muslim Brotherhood dominated parliament, especially led by a Muslim Brotherhood affiliated President, could have led Egypt on a path that would have been very bad for Israel and bad for the United States’ interests in the region. The implications of a military coup in regard to Israel and the United States are unknown at this point, but may actually restore stability to the region.
The reaction of the United States government to the ruling in Egypt:
State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said that the US was still studying the ruling and would not comment on it directly but voiced hope that Egyptians would enjoy the gains from last year’s revolution.
“We want to see the Egyptian people have what they fought for, which is a free, fair, democratic, transparent system of government – governance that represents the will of the people, a parliament so elected, a president so elected,” Nuland told reporters.
This is clearly based on a gross misunderstanding of what happened in early 2011 when protests resulted in the military ousting Hosni Mubarak who was then and is now gravely ill while appeasing the populace with democratic gestures. The world acted as if a revolution had occurred because people wanted to imagine that a revolution had occurred. The reality was that little or no power shifted from the military to anyone else and today, just prior to the drafting of a new constitution and the Presidential elections, the military proved that to be the case, ending a year of delusion.
The one thing that is nearly certain about the situation in Egypt now is that if there is violence in the streets, this time the military will not be on the side of the protesters.